Indian-Pakistan Conflict: Uncover the importance of
shifting narratives and their impact on civil unrest, war and civilian control.
06/03/2025
Author: Armaan
Hindocha
On May 22nd
a deadly terror attack consumed Pahalgam in Indian-administered Jammu and
Kashmir, claiming the lives of 26 civilians. India responded by launching
Operation Sindoor which targeted opposition
infrastructure. The mission led to retaliatory actions and a rise in civil
unrest alongside regional instability.
Digital
channels in these critical moments become the epicenter for updates. Civilians
share their perspectives and content whilst interpreting the rapidly unfolding
events. Public perception is crucial and narrative
influence can been used to manipulate civil perception
through coordinated activity.
To understand
how the situation unfolded throughout May 2025, we used Vision3 Intelligence to
ingest open-source conversations to determine narrative shifts, threats,
misinformation and sentiment live.
Sudden Heightened Online Activity:
Each platform's social data provided hints towards the imminent
outbreak. Content was published immediately to YouTube, whereas existing Reddit
posts were progressively filled with public opinion. Live feeds from Mastodon
provided geolocation and timings of airstrikes and updates whilst the News
tried to keep up with events.
The surges in
each respective source highlights how quickly narratives can scale during a
high-profile conflict alongside how discourse intensifies in lockstep with
developments on the ground.
As seen in
Figure 1 below, this sharp increase offers a glimpse into how volatile the
information environment becomes during crisis moments.
Sentiment data was also monitored over the period, allowing
us to visualize civilian and news sentiment shifts over the month.
What Shaped the Online Discourse?
Using Vision3's
AI-enabled narrative monitor we dissected the events that shaped spiking online
activity around this conflict.
Narrative Shift Monitor shifted 19 times in May alone.
-
The Narrative 2nd 3rd:
Focus on a landmark white paper incorporating sports into the IndiaAI mission. However, this was short lived.
-
3rd 4th: Pakistani
troops continued unprovoked small arms firing in different sectors along the
Line of Control (LoC) in Jammu and Kashmir, prompting effective retaliation by
the Indian army on the same day Avg Sentiment declined from 72 to 59.
-
4th 5th: Cybersecurity
threat, detailing how Pakistani-backed cyber attackers compromised defense
websites, including Indian military and defense manufacturing entities, thereby
exposing sensitive military data. Avg Sentiment declined from 59 to 48.
-
5th 6th: Pakistan's
claims of launching counter-strikes in response to
Indian missile attacks targeting terrorist sites within Pakistan.
-
6th 7th: Precision
strike weapon systems from the Indian Army, Navy, and Air Force, including
loitering munitions, were employed in Operation Sindoor,
which successfully targeted nine terror camps.
-
7th 8th: In a show of
intent, India launched a series of targeted military strikes under Operation Sindoor, marking a significant response to the recent
terror attack in Pahalgam that killed 26 civilians.
-
8th 9th: Amid
heightened hostilities between India and Pakistan, unverified claims of an
Indian naval strike on Karachi Port have flooded social media. The Karachi Port
Trust quickly discredited the reports. Avg Sentiment hit a low of 36.3 on
this day.
-
9th 10th: New Delhi:
The government today accused Pakistan of "targeting places of
worship" In India and said several "gurudwaras, convents and
temples" along the border in Jammu and Kashmir were damaged. However, this
narrative shifted quickly to India s government has just signed a deal with
the United Kingdom that allows more Indian graduates to take more white-collar
jobs from British graduates. The deal is truly appalling, said Nigel Farage ,
which spiked the Average Sentiment to 72.
-
10th 11th: Pakistan and
India launched strikes and counter-strikes against
each other s military installations on Saturday, prompting US calls for the
nuclear-armed neighbors to begin talks and defuse their escalation. Trump
steps in.
-
11th 12th: After four
days of intense hostilities and concerns that India and Pakistan would engage
in an all-out war, the US played a decisive active role in mediating a
ceasefire between the two countries
-
11th 12th: After four
days of intense hostilities and concerns that India and Pakistan would engage
in an all-out war, the US played a decisive active role in mediating a
ceasefire between the two countries
-
13th 17th: NEW DELHI:
Supreme Court's Justice Bhushan Ramakrishna Gavai will take oath as the next
Chief Justice of India later today. He steps into the shoes of Justice Sanjiv
Khanna US President Donald Trump urges Apple to stop moving iPhone
manufacturing to India and boost domestic production as it pivots from China.
-
17th 18th: Foreign
Secretary Vikram Misri will brief a parliamentary committee on Monday on the
India-Pakistan military conflict that happened in the aftermath of the Pahalgam
terror attack
-
29th 31st: Singapore:
Chief of Defence Staff Gen Anil Chauhan on Saturday
said India's Operation Sindoor has drawn a "new
red line" of intolerance against terror.
Figure 3, 4
& 5 Hashtag and Entity Word cloud showing the most frequently used
hashtags and involved entities during the May 2025 escalation. Entity
Relationship Map showing the relationship between entities. Vision3
Intelligence.
VISION3 Agent
We employed our
Vision3 agent to inspect the social media payload and geolocate the completed airstrikes
in real-time.
Figure 6
VISION3 AGENT locating existing airstrikes. Vision3 Intelligence.
Our agent is
also predictive and provides the next 20 airstrike targets based on recent
conflict patterns, military activity and intelligence signals:
Figure 7
VISION3 AGENT locating future airstrikes. Vision3 Intelligence.
This
overview examines how online narratives unfolded from April 15 to June 3,
2025 immediately after the Pahalgam attack through the day the ceasefire took
effect. Although hostilities formally paused on May 10, by June 4 the situation
remains unstable: diplomatic tensions persist, digital influence campaigns
continue unabated, and sporadic skirmishes along the Line of Control signal
that the crisis is far from over.
Rather than
opining on real‐time events, this report aims to
illuminate how narrative cues appeared and shifted during the conflict s
critical early weeks.
The value of
these insights lies not in pronouncing judgment but in snapshotting the rhythm,
volume, and complexity of online discourse amid a geopolitical flashpoint. We
see what messages gained traction, which actors drove the conversation, and how
networks coordinated to amplify certain frames.
In scenarios
like this, narrative intelligence doesn't provide certainty it delivers
clarity. It surfaces early warning signs, exposes coordinated influence
efforts, and tracks how the reverberations of conflict ripple outward often
well beyond the contested terrain.